Old Cairo by KMK
What happened in the past few weeks in Tunisia was a shock for the entire world. Commentators from both West and East had their jaws dropping from the spectacle of what was the Jasmine Revolution that sent Tunisia’s longtime dictator scrambling out of the country. No one expected a popular uprising (especially a successful one) in the Arab world. Not even me.
And now fears and hopes of Revolution are spreading in the Middle East like wildfire. Egyptians are gathering in the streets and they all want one thing: Mubarak out. Syria, before their populace gets too riled up, is clamping down on media outlets and access to internet sites as well as instant messaging services.
My mind wanders back to five short months ago when I took a trip to Egypt to visit friends. Cairo International airport was dirty, dingy, and a hassle to maneuver through — a very sad contrast to the modern and classy Dubai International airport from where I had just left. The impression any visitor will have does little justice to the bustling and colorful metropolis that is Cairo, a city of 20+ million Egyptians. The state of Egypt’s development, or lack thereof, has been blamed upon the current ruling regime by most Egyptians.
As my friend picked me up and welcomed me back to Egypt, our first conversation was about President Hosni Mubarak who has been ruling Egypt under a “state of emergency” since the assassination of his predecessor Anwar Sadat in 1981. “Mubarak is getting old and has been very sick; we’re all waiting to see what happens,” he told me. There were rumors that Mubarak had been preparing his son, Gamal Mubarak, to take over the reins after his demise. This was not what my friend wanted, or any other Egyptian that I talked to. Fortunately, or Unfortunately, Mubarak survived whatever illness he was suffering.
What the Jasmine Revolution of Tunisia did for Egypt was give fuel to the undercurrent of discontent that has been simmering in the Egyptian populace for quite a while. Thousands of Egyptians are now on the streets. If and when Mubarak tries to pass on power to his son, it will not be an easy task.
After seeing images and videos on the news and shared through friends on Facebook, I could feel excitement building in the pit of my stomach. I sent an email to my Cairo-based friend to check in:
KMK: What the hell is going on in Egypt right now? Is everything OK?
FS: Everything’s great, this is an exciting time and I’m so glad I’m here for it. Watch out for Friday, there are going to be huge protests, and I’m going to be there
. People have been organizing these protests on facebook and twitter since the whole Tunisia thing, and for once they were actually big enough that the police couldn’t just go in and beat everybody up. It’s never been this big during Mubarak’s regime, so I’m glad because even if we don’t get what we want we know things will never be the same.
KMK: OK. More power to you. I’m sure it’s an exciting time. But, still, be safe.
Since then, Egypt has blocked access to the internet and disabled SMS (text messaging) services. I haven’t heard a peep from my friends in Egypt in the last 12-or-so hours.
As an American it can be difficult not only to understand what’s going on, but how to decide what’s best for the US, US-Egypt relations, and US relations with the Arab world in general. We have no right to decide what’s best for Egypt itself. The US provides something like $1+ billion to Egypt annually; which means we support Mubarak’s regime to stay in power. To put it rather simply, or perhaps very oversimplified, the US supports the Mubarak regime to keep stability in a region where our influence is tenuous and our interests are high.
Needless to say, there are many Egyptians and others in the Arab world who are resentful of the US.
It’s logical for us to support governments that support our interests or at least stay out of our way, and the US does this with many governments that could be viewed as cruel and oppressive. At the same time, we as Americans should support free speech as it is one of the most (if not THE most) crucial facet to democracy.
There is very large doubt as to whether Mubarak’s regime will fall. If he does fall, it could really be a bad thing for the US. With the dissolution of the Mubarak regime, there will be a huge power vacuum in Egypt and multiple parties will be clamoring for power and influence.
As of now there are two contenders for power that are at the forefront should Mubarak’s regime fall. One is Mohamed ElBaradei, the former Director General for the International Atomic Energy Agency (responsible for checking up on nuclear delinquents such as Iran), and his supporters. The other contender is the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a pan-Arabian political group whose goal is to govern with the iron fist of Islam and Sharia law. It has been banned in both Egypt and Syria.
Baradei could potentially be a good option for Egypt and for US-Middle East relations. He has already proven to be pro-West through his involvement with the IAEA. He also seems to care about democracy and the state of affairs in Egypt, though only time will really tell if this is true. The Muslim Brotherhood is a very very bad option for almost everyone, especially the US. Their group and political aspirations have been oppressed in many countries, often with the aid of the USA. They could and probably will stir anti-American resentment in the Middle East.
So what will happen if Egypt sees a regime change?
In my opinion, it comes down to the clash between the social and economic classes. Egypt is very poor and ruled by a wealthy upper class. The disparity between the two classes is huge. From what I can see, though, most Egyptians from all economic classes are against Mubarak. My friends, some of the more fortunate Egyptians who had access to Western education through the American University in Cairo, are my best example. Most if not all of them will be joining the protests on Friday. And they are mostly pro-Baradei.
The Muslim Brotherhood will have a higher attraction to the general population who are poor and much more religiously conservative. If the lower class Egyptians decide that it’s time for an end to the status-quo as well as the end of the Mubarak regime, the Muslim Brotherhood could easily ride this wave to power. The Egyptians from the wealthy and intellectual classes will have to make an effort to demonstrate their solidarity with the majority of Egyptians.
I am waiting in anticipation towards the events that will take place in Egypt tomorrow, Friday January 28th 2011. Will the popular uprising of Egyptians be strong enough to overcome and sway the massive and currently-pro-Mubarak military and police force? If so, does Mubarak fall? Or does Mubarak AND the status quo (wealthy/intellectual class) fall? This will all depend on the charisma of the figureheads who join and lead a revolution, if there is one.
But will there be a bloodless revolution? Not in Egypt.
jake
January 29, 2011
Great post- I think you nailed some points here:
1) [The U.S.] should support free speech as it is one of the most (if not THE most) crucial facet to democracy. – True and it seems like besides Wikileaks the U.S. is trying to do this but of course the EU and U.S. could be doing a lot more in terms of not making political decisions based solely on “are they with us or against us” type calculus. Sometimes it’s better in the long run to stand up for principles because eventually those principles will likely become the norm (e.g. nationalism) and then the US will look like a false profit/hypocrite for not standing up when it had the chance to actually make a difference and gain a lot of adherents. Superpowers have the ability to change the rules of the game and I agree press freedom is a good thing to stand up for.
2) That the muslim brotherhood is a bad option: That’s a great point too. Some of Al Queda’s top leaders came out of the Muslim Brotherhood and unless that groups ideology has changed radically having them in power in Egypt, especially with Hamas controlling Gaza is not going to help the Middle East peace process a whole lot. in fact it might even cause a paranoid Israel to lash out where it used to coordinate quietly with the Egyptians.
3) Lastly, the role of Facebook and other forms of social media – This is the hot topic right now (finally!!!) so it’s great that you bring it up. You mention that these protests were planned but in a country as poor as Egypt it seems unlikely that most of the youths there spend a lot of time on Titter or Facebook. Maybe some groups of Egyptians do but I suspect that most people got the message from the violent/ anti government photos and messages in newspapers. I don’t have evidence to back this up but there are a lot of newspapers in Cairo and men hang out in the evenings and always smoke and talk with newspapers never far away. There’s got to be a causal chain in how the messages of protest got out and I think that’s a great debate/investigation to have.